Theory: Declining Market

 "The most important divide in American life is the diploma divide. College-educated folks tend to vote for Democrats …The Democrats dominate the media, the universities, the cultural institutions and government." - David Brooks, The New York Times, September 4, 2024

Sure, a certain number of those with diplomas will develop the influence and power. 

Kamala Harris is one. She makes peanuts and will continue to earn relative peanuts if elected US president. (Of course, down the road, she can pass through the revolving door and become fantastically wealthy.) 

Some others can combine the influence and power with high-paying jobs. They range from JPMorgan Chase head Jamie Dimon to law firm Paul, Weiss chair Brad Karp. 

But, here's what is also happening and it's no longer under-the-radar: The diploma is less and less likely to be the ticket to get, hold and move on to better work. And too many are on the wrong side of the divide.

The Wall Street Journal recently featured a typical one of those - 20-something Sam Lalevee. All his BA in communications got him was a remote position for a call center and the need to pick up an evening gig. The latter was necessary when his rent went up $200. With that earnings add-on, he grosses $45k. Stuck? Sure looks like it. 

Those on the other side of the diploma divide are likely the ones buying the houses, having the RVs in the driveway and the boat in the water. They range from plumbers to auto mechanics. Among them is Gen Zer Chris Morillon who received a promotion and purchased her own house. 

It's so obvious and it's causing so much pain: The whole Knowlege Worker Class is in wild upheaval. It's being labeled the "White Collar Recession." Personal sagas of losing those good jobs requiring academic degrees and not finding new ones to replace them fill professional anonymous networks Blind, Glassdoor, Fishbowl and Reddit. 

Driving that is glut. There are too many who are highly educated. (That is happening in India also.) 

There is also a mismatch of what the labor market currently demands and what Knowledge Workers are offering. Have you included "Advanced AI Skills" on your resume? No one gives much of a shit about theory. 

Those hiring, hell-bent on cost-efficiency, are unwilling to pay for so much education. That's a reason the once-prized MBA is less in demand. Political and legal influencer Elie Mystal said he would have his two sons "stop" with the BA/BS. 

In addition, more slots can be filled with Gen AI, not a human. IBM assesses whether to fill all new positions with AI or a human.

So it looks a lot like the White Collar Recession could mutate into a wipe-out of that particular cog in capitalism.

This is not really new. It's only the acceleration of a trend kicked off in the unexpected financial downturn post-9/11. For example, clients of public relations agencies mandated fast cost-effective results, not erudite (billable) tutoring on how perception or branding operates. 

Recently number-one public relations firm Edelman laid off more than 200 seasoned players.  Reddit Public Relations chronicles how difficult it is to be hired for the first few jobs in that field and then the struggle to hold on to what you got. 

In contrast those in the skilled trades often have the pick of litter in what setting they will earn a good living. And there is usually old-fashioned employment security. They are not in the high agita of the white collar. 

The chase after diplomas is still here, though. Influencers are making a king's ransom featuring the interior decorating for their dorm rooms. New version of the America Dream is a successful startup launched in the dorm.

Applications to law schools are up nearly 6 percent. No surprise. The degree can open the door to plenty of influence and power. 

But, simultaneously, the job situation in legal services has been in decline for four consecutive months. What will happen to all those newly minted JDs? There is a lot of hoopla: I got into Harvard or Yale law school. Then many of them are sidelined in the real world of work. 

Meanwhile newly merged entity A&O Shearman just terminated 10% of equity partners. Just like those at the bottom of the pyramid structure of law firms, those at the top can be forced out if they are not singing for the supper in the right key.

As an intuitive coach I have been stunned that most of the clients "listen" to my recommendation to shun glam (e.g. fields with influence and power). Instead if their day job, for instance, is in fast food build on that background for creating their enterprise. That could be the technology for the meat supply chain.

Prediction: LinkedIn could eliminate the slot in which members post their academic alma mater.

In business and life you usually have only one shot at whatever. Up the odds of success with Jane Genova. I am an intuitive coach, tarot reader and content-creator. Complimentary consultation (please text/phone 203-468-8579 or email janegenova374@gmail.com)